The clue to the best move of the day on the EUR/USD currency pair came from US dollar index futures during today’s New York session. A 50-pip short trade on the euro was the highlight of an otherwise humdrum ending to the trading day.
After EUR/USD finally broke a well established ascending triangle on the Daily chart yesterday, we were looking for a retest of the break area to hopefully snag a high probability entry for continuation onward to and through 160. Using Fibonacci retracement levels, psychological level of 159.00, multiple ema’s on 1, 2, and 4 hour charts, and daily pivot points, we were able to identify an area of immense overlapping support. As the bollinger squeeze began, stochastic & macd divergence indicated a rise was imminent. All we needed was that quick pop to support for the high probability setup to play out to the upside, risking approximately 25 pips to gain 100+. The trade ultimately offered a simply perfect entry and gave us an easy 80 pips however, eventually reversing before ever touching 160. Nevertheless a high quality, high probability setup, which was able to be planned at least an hour in advance. What more can you ask for, even with the failure of continuation, it was an easy 50 pips nonetheless.
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The US dollar started the New York session with a firm tone as commodities saw a sharp sell-off. The greenback also got a boost from data showing a rise in US factory orders and an upward revision to durable goods orders figures. The EUR/USD currency pair fell more than 100 pips after the opening bell on the New York Stock Exchange.
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Results from the most recent ADP survey of US private sector employment showed that private payrolls rose an estimated 297000 in December, far exceeding the median forecast of 100000. The US report sparked a dollar surge, a sharp drop in the Japanese yen, and an extension of yesterday’s Swiss franc sell-off. The EUR/CHF currency pair rose more than 80 pips from its Asian session highs during the final three hours of the European trading day.
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Yesterday we enjoyed quite a Piptopia on the British Pound breakout of a Daily trendline to the upside. Sure enough, today was our opportunity in London to short it back down to the trendline retest. Pre-London gave us our first lower high to work with on the GBP/USD, and the 2hr EUR/GBP started developing a higher low to give us confidence in the move. The rest of the London session was spent reloading shorts at every Fibonacci pullback possible and turning a 100 or so pip move into a 250 pip play due to exponential reloads, I just love days like this, purely technical. Bad Retail Sales for Britain helped finish the job and there we were, right on our target zone to take profit, could not script it better really. FXBootcamp London Currency Coach- Christian Stephens
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Capital preservation was a valid position today, as the US dollar consolidated after losing ground against most major currencies during the Asian and London sessions. A 55-pip scalp trade on the GBP/USD currency pair was arguably the best setup today’s New York session had to offer.
After sliding nearly 120 pips during today’s London session, the EUR/USD currency pair spent much of the New York session clawing back half of that drop. That euro recovery set up a 40-pip short trade, which came together during the hour before the London close.
Price action on the major currency pairs was limited to consolidation during today’s New York session, as traders await tomorrow’s NFP report.